All time high grain trade forecasted in 2017 and 2018

Klaveness Research Week 20 Frontpage

Klaveness customers and clients receive a comprehensive dry bulk research report on a weekly basis. The below is an extract from one of the topics addressed in the week 20 report.

USDA released their monthly report “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates”(WASDE) on Wednesday last week. Total world trade of Coarse grains, Major oilseeds*, Major protein meals* and Wheat was revised up with another 2.8Mt to 605Mt in the 16/17 MY.  Total export in the 16/17Marketing Year (MY) is now forecast to be up 22Mt YOY from the previous Marketing Year.

This month’s update was the first too include projections for the 17/18 MY. Total export of grains* in the coming marketing year is forecast to increase with another 10Mt to a new all-time high of 615Mt.

Graph showing global grain and oilseed trade

Total global wheat export is projected to increase 2Mt YoY to a new all-time high of 181Mt. Total coarse grain export is expected to be on par with the current MY at 184Mt. Total global export of major oilseeds* is forecast to increase with 6Mt to a new all-time high of 168Mt while the total global export of major protein meals* is estimated to increase 3Mt to a new all-time high of 83Mt.

Graph showing export per region

 

The growth regions in terms of export is forecast to be East Coast South America with a projected increase of 13Mt to 213Mt followed by the EU with a 6Mt increase to 43Mt. The growth in these regions is forecast to be partly offset by lower export in North/Central America (-4Mt), Med/BS (-3Mt) and in Australia (-3Mt) (Klaveness Research)

*Coarse grains, Rapeseed, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean, Soybean Meal, Sunflower Seeds, Sunflower Meal and Wheat

 

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