Total grain export from main hubs up 16% YoY in October. November export estimated up 13% YoY

weekly dry bulk week 48

We estimate that the total grain exports from Black Sea, East Coast South America (ECSA), EU, U.S. and the Black Sea totaled 40 million tonnes (Mt) in October. This was down 14% from September in annualized terms but up 16% year on year (YoY).  We estimate that the export in November to be up 9% from October on an annualized basis and up 13% YoY.

Graph 1 - Total Grain Export (ECSA, EU, US and Black Sea)

The total YoY increase in October from these hubs of 5.4Mt was mainly due to higher grain export from ECSA which increased 6.3Mt from the same period last year. The main contributors to the growth within ECSA in terms of commodities was the corn (+4.0Mt, +130%) and soybean exports (+2.8Mt, +350%).  We estimate continued strong export from ECSA in November, but expect the YoY growth to slow to 3.8Mt.

2017 YoY Change per export region

We estimate that grain export from the Black Sea increased 1.2Mt YoY in October.  This was mainly due to higher export of wheat (+1.2Mt), rapeseed (+363k) and barley(+322k). The Black Sea corn export was down 0.8Mt YoY. Going into November we expect the YoY growth to turn slightly negative due to a high base from last year.

EU grain export (based on export licenses) increased 0.7Mt in October as the barley (+0.5Mt) and wheat export (+0.4MT) increased while the corn export decreased with 0.2Mt YoY.  We expect a positive YoY growth in EU export also in November.

The growth in export from ECSA, Black Sea and the EU was partly offset by lower U.S. exports. We estimate that U.S. exports was down 2.8Mt YoY in October. This was mainly due to lower export of soyabeans (-1.6Mt), corn (-0.9Mt) and wheat (-0.3Mt). We expect US export in November to be slightly up YoY.