USDA increase 17/18 export forecast with 2.1Mt

weekly research frontpage

Illustration: key trends

USDA released their monthly report “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates”(WASDE) last week. Total world trade of Coarse grains, Major oilseeds*, Major protein meals* and Wheat in the 17/18 Marketing Year was revised up 2.1Mt to 624.4Mt.

Global grain and oilseed trade graph

Graph: Global grain and oilseed trade

Total export of grains and oilseeds is forecast to set a new all time high, up 17Mt from the previous Marketing Year.  Total export of coarse grains* is forecast to set a new all time high of 189Mt, up 8Mt from the previous Marketing Year. Total global wheat export is projected to be up 1.3Mt to a new all time high of 184Mt. Total global export of major oilseeds* in the 17/18 Marketing Year is forecast to increase with 5Mt to a new all time high of 171Mt and the total global export of major protein meals* is estimated to increase 2Mt to a new all time high of 80Mt.

 

Export per region graph

Graph: export per region

The lions share of the growth in export in the 17/18 Marketing Year is forecast to occur in East Coast South America.  Exports was revised up marginally in this report and is forecast to reach 218Mt, up 27Mt from the 16/17Marketing Year. Exports from the Med/BS was revised up 1.3Mt in this report and is projected to reach 121Mt, up 5.4 Mt from the previous Marketing Year. The growth in ECSA and the Med/BS is forecast to be partly offset by lower export in Australia, North/Central America and the EU. Australian export was revised slightly up in this report but is forecast to be down -8.6Mt from 16/17 Marketing Year. Exports from North/Central America was revised up 0.7Mt in this report but is projected down 6.0Mt from 16/17.  Exports from the EU was revised down 1.0Mt and is now projected to be down 1.2Mt from 16/17.

Total trade in the 16/17 Marketing Year was revised down a marginal 0.1Mt to 607.5Mt. The total export in the 16/17 MY is now forecast to be up 24.3Mt from the 15/16 Marketing Year. (Klaveness Research)

*Coarse grains, Rapeseed, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean, Soybean Meal, Sunflower Seeds, Sunflower Meal and Wheat