USDA increases grain trade forecast further

frontpage week 37


USDA released their monthly report “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates”(WASDE) on Tuesday this week. Total world trade of Coarse grains, Major oilseeds*, Major protein meals* and Wheat was revised up with another 1.8Mt to 609Mt in the 16/17 Marketing Year. The total export in the 16/17 Marketing Year is now forecast to be up 26Mt from the previous Marketing Year.

Total grain trade in the 17/18 Marketing Year was revised up 0.6Mt to 620Mt. Total export of grains* in the coming marketing year is thus forecast to set a new all time high, up 11Mt from the previous Marketing Year. Total global export of major oilseeds* in the 17/18 Marketing Year is forecast to increase with 5Mt to a new all time high of 169Mt and the total global export of major protein meals* is estimated to increase 3Mt to a new all time high of 81Mt. Total coarse grain export is expected to increase with 4Mt to a new all time high of 187Mt. Total global wheat export is projected to be on par with the previous seasons all time high of 182Mt.Graph week 37

The lions share of the growth in export in the 17/18 MY is forecast to occur in East Coast South America. Exports are forecast to reach 213Mt, up 19Mt from the 16/17 Marketing Year. Exports from the EU and the Med/BS are both projected up 3Mt. The growth in ECSA, EU and the Med/BS is forecast to be partly offset by lower export in North/Central America (-8Mt) (Klaveness Research).

*Coarse grains, Rapeseed, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean, Soybean Meal, Sunflower Seeds, Sunflower Meal and Wheat